AI Market Intelligence

Model forecasts, verified evidence, and runtime context translated into structured market briefs.

⌁

Market Pulse

Primary Focus
BTCUSDT
Bias
NEUTRAL
Model Agreement
100%
High
Expected Move (H=1)
+0.26%
Evidence Quality
Medium
Reason: direction accuracy 48.4%
Runtime Status
Monitoring
No open exposure

Market at a Glance

2 market tickers synced
₿

BTCUSDT — AI Market Brief

Timeframe: H=1 (1 Day)Last Update: Aug 16, 2026

A. Current Model View

Direction / BiasNEUTRAL
Expected Move+0.26%
Forecast Close$63,252.61
Reference Close$63,086.01
IssuedAug 15, 2026
TargetAug 16, 2026
Model Agreement100%
Active ModelNova-II (in Fusion-3N) · Fusion-3C · Fusion-4 · Fusion-3N · Orion-II (in Fusion-4)
Forecast vs Reference
63,25363,19763,14263,086recenttarget

B. Historical Reliability (BTCUSDT H=1)

Verified Forecast Rows3,240
Verified Days180
Models in Pool18
Avg Error (MAPE)1.73%
Median Error1.33%
Direction Accuracy48.43%
Touch Rate (Hit)70.93%
Recent MAPE1.05%
Days with Avg Error <1%62.5%
Forecast Rows <1% Error58.3%
Summary: Evidence 180d. Charts: overview recent rows (144 rows). Daily sub-1% uses average day error; row sub-1% uses individual forecast rows.
Direction Accuracy Trend
65%33%0%08-08: 50.0%08-09: 27.8%08-10: 5.6%08-11: 5.6%08-12: 22.2%08-13: 55.6%08-14: 27.8%08-15: 33.3%recent verified days
Hover points to see direction accuracy %.
Error Distribution
58.3%
<1%
28.5%
1–2%
11.8%
2–3%
1.4%
3–5%
0.0%
>5%

C. Scenario Map

+

Base Scenario (60%)

Models keep a NEUTRAL bias while price behavior remains consistent with the reference area near $63,086.01. Target context: $63,252.61.

+

Range Extension (25%)

A stronger range-bound extension is supported only if agreement stays firm and recent error does not expand materially.

!

Breakout / Invalidation Risk (15%)

The scenario weakens if price rejects the forecast path, volatility expands sharply, or evidence quality deteriorates against the downside path.

D. Risk Context

⚡Volatility RiskNormal
▣News / Event RiskMedium
⇄Spread RiskLow
⌁Model AgreementHigh
↯Historical Acc. (Dir.)Moderate
〽Recent Model TrendImproving
Overall Risk: MEDIUM

E. Analyst Note

BTCUSDT shows a neutral model bias for the next daily target, with expected move +0.26% and model agreement is 100%. Historical evidence quality is medium, so the useful value is in combining current direction with verified error history, volatility context, and runtime filters.

This is research context, not a trade signal.

What Changed Since Last Update

↑
Bias Change
SHORT → NEUTRAL
↑
Expected Move
-2.93% → +0.26%
↑
Model Agreement
current 100%
=
Recent MAPE
3.00% → 1.05%
=
Runtime Status
Monitoring → Monitoring

Model Reliability Snapshot (BTCUSDT H+1)

ModelDirection Acc.Avg ErrorRecent MAPETouch RateTrend
Nova-II · in Fusion-3C50.00%1.40%1.00%83.33%
Orion-II · standalone44.44%1.32%1.03%96.67%
Helix-II · standalone50.00%1.43%1.17%77.78%
Fusion-3C47.78%1.41%1.01%81.11%
Orion-II · in Fusion-3B48.89%1.45%1.08%78.89%
View full evidence →

Weekly AI Research Brief

Computed from public Evidence summary and 90d model leaderboard. It does not mean an asset is a trading signal.
ⓘ
Lowest Avg Error
BTCUSDT · 1.73% MAPE
✕
Highest Avg Error
ETHUSDT · 2.20% MAPE
◎
Best Direction Accuracy
ETHUSDT · 50.93% direction
⇅
Weakest Direction Accuracy
BTCUSDT · 48.43% direction
≋
Most Stable Model
Orion-II · BTCUSDT · 1.32% MAPE
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Where Runtime Filtered Out
BTCUSDT
⌬
Where Models Disagreed
No major disagreement in public forecast pool
◈
Strongest Agreement
BTCUSDT · 100%
▣
Evidence Note
Lowest MAPE is not the same as strongest trading signal; direction accuracy, touch rate, runtime state, and risk must be read separately.
View full weekly report →
What ProsQuant is not
Research output, not an investment instruction.
Not financial adviceNot a black-box signal sellerNot a profit guaranteeNot a broker or execution venue
Research only. Not financial advice. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.